Why beating Liverpool still wouldn’t make City fourth place favourites

This Sunday’s Eastlands clash between City and Liverpool has been billed as crucial in the race for a Champions League spot, and one which Rafa Benitez can’t afford to lose. If City do win, they would be four points ahead of Liverpool and have a game in hand.

On the face of it, this would be a commanding position for Roberto Mancini – but that assumes all remaining fixtures are of comparable difficulty. As we all know, the Premier League is anything but equal and fixtures vary considerably.

Aside from whether the opposition is Chelsea or Burnley, simply playing away often seems to much for City. Therefore I’ve had a quick run through the remaining fixtures for both clubs, and predicted the likely number of points to be gained.

This is highly subjective, as no football match is entirely predictable, yet I think it clearly shows City having the tougher run-in, even saying we beat Liverpool on Sunday. I’ve put the predicted number of points after each fixture.

Liverpool:

Man City v Liverpool – 0
Liverpool v Blackburn – 3
Wigan v Liverpool – 3
Liverpool v Portsmouth – 3
Man Utd v Liverpool – 0
Liverpool v Sunderland – 3
Birmingham v Liverpool – 1
Liverpool v Fulham – 3
Liverpool v West Ham – 3
Burnley v Liverpool – 3
Liverpool v Chelsea – 0
Hull v Liverpool – 3
Total: 25
Added to Liverpool’s existing 44 points gives 69.

City:

Man City v Liverpool – 3
Chelsea v Man City – 0
Man City v Tottenham – 1
Sunderland v Man City – 3
Fulham v Man City – 1
Man City v Wigan – 3
Burnley v Man City – 3
Man City v Birmingham – 3
Man City v Man Utd – 1
Arsenal v Man City – 0
Man City v Aston Villa – 1
West Ham v Man City – 3
Man City v Everton – 1
Total: 23
Added to our existing 45 points gives 68.

By the time our fixture with Everton gets rearranged it could be a dead rubber for Everton, while West Ham could be a lot trickier if they need points to guarantee their Premier League survival. I’d still go for four points from these two fixtures combined.

This shows that while our destiny is in our own hands, we are still going to need to put in some big performances and win some of our tough home games against Spurs, United, Villa and Everton. At the same time, there’s no room for results like the defeat to Hull.

Doing the same thing for Villa produced 67 points, so they’re still big players in the race. Tottenham on the other hand look least likely with a triple header against Arsenal, Chelsea and United likely to do for them.

One final point, doing the same predictions for the top three gave Chelsea 84 points with United and Arsenal both on 82. No wonder Arsene Wenger was so upset about losing to United and Chelsea the other week. The Gunners have by far the easiest run-in and could be worth a flutter if you’re that way inclined.

• What do you think of the predicted totals? (I’m prepared for a great deal of disagreement on something so subjective)